The Weekly Standard: Five paths to victory for Trump.

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Electoral Mapmaking /> Oct 03, 2016 | By Jeffrey H. Anderson

One of the most pervasive myths in American politics is that a “Big Blue Wall” will protect Democratic presidential nominees, perhaps even those who lose the popular vote. In truth, this electoral Blue Wall is more like a collection of disconnected forts-some imposing, some not-and the loss of any one of them would likely doom the Democratic nominee.

id="more-70115">The Blue Wall-states where the Democrats have won every presidential race since 1992-includes the entire Northeast except for New Hampshire, the Midwestern Great Lakes states aside from Ohio and Indiana, the three Pacific Coast states, and Hawaii. Even holding the wall is no guarantee of victory. John Kerry won the entire Blue Wall in 2004, plus New Hampshire, yet still lost to George W. Bush by 35 electoral votes. Al Gore won the entire Blue Wall in 2000-back when it was worth 13 more electoral votes-plus Iowa and New Mexico, yet still lost to Bush by 5 electoral votes. For the Democrats, holding the Blue Wall is necessary but not sufficient.

It is often claimed that Donald Trump has several must-win states, and this is true (although the states listed are often wrong). In addition to the 23 states that Mitt Romney won by at least 7 percentage points, which Trump isn't going to lose, Trump has 3 must-win states: Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina. (Polling finds that Trump narrowly overtook Clinton in mid-September in all three.) If Hillary Clinton wins any of those states, it'll be a knockout blow.

But in addition to the 15 states where President Obama beat Romney by at least 10 points, which Clinton isn't going to lose, Clinton has 5 must-win states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Virginia. (Polling finds her ahead in all five.) The first four are part of the Blue Wall; the Old Dominion is not. If Trump wins any of those states, he'll be headed to the White House.

So there are eight potential knockout states in this election, and five of them are being defended by Hillary Clinton.

To read expanded article, click href="http://www.weeklystandard.com/electoral-mapmaking/article/2004500">here.

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The Sacramento Bee: As Legislature stalemates on State Bar bill, the fallout begins

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Capitol Alert /> By Dan Walters /> dwalters@sacbee.com /> September 2, 2016 – 10:49 AM

Wednesday night's legislative stalemate on giving the State Bar permission to continue collecting dues from the state's lawyers and, more controversially, overhauling its organization and operations, is already creating fallout.

id="more-69929">Members of the Assembly Judiciary Committee, whose reform measures were stymied in the Senate Judiciary Committee, immediately fired off a five-page letter to the State Bar, which licenses and regulates lawyers, seeking detailed information on its finances, including its reserves, its non-dues income and specifics on spending. The letter also asked Elizabeth Parker, the State Bar's executive director, who was brought in to straighten out the agency after a series of scandals and scathing audits, to detail how the State Bar will reform itself.

In the final days of the session, with private negotiations on a State Bar dues bill stalemated, members of the committee had grilled Parker sharply over a wide range of specific issues, including the extent of the agency's reserves and how long it could operate if it could not begin 2017 with continued authority to collect dues from attorneys.

Parker, meanwhile, announced on Thursday that the State Bar would ask the state Supreme Court, which shares oversight of the agency with the Legislature, to give it authority to collect at least some 2017 dues from lawyers “in the absence of legislative action.”

During a previous stalemate over State Bar dues authority, the Supreme Court authorized it to assess lawyers partial dues to keep its regulatory functions intact, but Parker said in her announcement that the new request “is expected to be more comprehensive…”

To read expanded article, click href="http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article99544607.html">here.

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